Breaking the streak

After the U.S. lost to Türkiye, Tyler Adams came through the post-match mixed zone and was fairly immediately, understandably, asked about the next game. By then, pundits and fans had already charted the path forward, the path stretching its hand around history, with hope and belief– pesky national attributes with double-edged implications– guiding them toward possibility (or clicks).

The team’s captain from Qatar rolled back the presumption that tonight in Santa Clara, the U.S. are favorites to win, or that if they were, it would change their mindset: “No, not necessarily. I don’t think there’s a lot of games that we’re necessarily favored to win. I feel like we’re the underdogs in a lot of situations.”

Yesterday in Santa Clara, Pochettino pushed back on this too: “First of all, I don’t believe that we are the favorite team. Because we were now the last few days. How difficult it is for everyone. You know, I think ‘favorite’ is to talk after.” He continued, referencing a knockout phase that’s seen a number of closer calls than expected, with only France running away with their victory: “Everyone says the favorite is Germany, but Paraguay beat [them]. And favorite Morocco or again, Netherlands? I think too many games—or Brazil vs. Japan—how difficult it was.”

The United States Men’s National Team hasn’t won a knockout round contest in the FIFA World Cup since 2002. They haven’t beaten a European team in five years or 12 meetings, with a 10-game losing streak leading them to this California night where they’ll try to break that record with a record-setting number of eyes observing. In total, they’ve beaten a European team twice in knockout-round football, including a 1924 Olympic contest against Estonia and a 2009 Confederations Cup clash against Spain. They’ve never beaten a European team in the knockout round of the World Cup.

Post-Türkiye, I asked Adams about the 10-game losing streak and he responded that he didn’t know the streak existed until I said it, and, “I mean, I couldn’t care less if we had 100 game win streak, 100 game losing streak. I go out every game to try and win.”

Tim Ream, shortly after, said it’s just the “rub of the green”: “It’s just.. it’s just one of those things. None of us are thinking, oh, it’s a European team, we’re gonna lose…It’s just one of those things. I think it’s a.. I’m not gonna say it’s a coincidence, but that stylistically it’s, it’s not even about style, it’s just, you know, rub of the green, and just the way the ball is falling right now for us.”

Pochettino, asked about the five-year gap between today’s opportunity and the last time they beat a UEFA team (which ironically is Bosnia & Herzegovina circa 2021) in yesterday’s press conference, said, “Coincidence? Maybe a coincidence, I don’t know.”

Not all stats have meaning; Ream and Pochettino have a point. Of the 10-straight games with a loss against UEFA teams, eight were in friendlies. At least six and arguably all of those friendlies were used to try things out, run out a new lineup, make heavy rotations, or debut new players. Four of 10 defeats were against the same two teams, Germany and Türkiye.

Still, the fact stands: the United States has yet to beat a UEFA team in (the knockout round*) of a World Cup, and it’s been five years since they’ve managed it at all. In March, particularly as they rotated, they were comprehensively dismantled by two UEFA teams (Belgium and Portugal) back to back.

Pressed for details, Pochettino continued with a laugh: “Maybe it’s pure coincidence. Maybe tomorrow we have a good opportunity to fight against the history. Not only against Bosnia and Herzegovina, if not against, our past five years.”

Proffered with a smile, there may be more wisdom to that suggestion than he knows. The team’s 10-game losing streak takes us back to the afternoon in Doha when they lost 3-1 to the Dutch. They failed to capitalize on their opportunities in the attacking third and were punished for momentary lapses at the other end. A 12-game winless run against European teams takes us to the start of that same tournament, and includes two draws against England (0-0) and Wales (1-1). We were right in it, it’s just brief moments, we’d learn after. That pattern and its ensuing reflection would repeat for five years.

The bookmakers maintain the USMNT are favorites to win tonight in California. They’ll break a number of long-running trends if they do. And they play better when they don’t think so.