Can England defeat Sweden in Sheffield tonight?
The first Euro semi-final takes place tonight in Sheffield, featuring the hosts and the Swedes. A brief look back at both of their tournaments, and some ideas of what to expect tonight.
Back before this summer’s UEFA Women’s Euro began, Sweden was the team many pundits had circled in red as a favorite- if not the favorite- to win it all at Wembley next Sunday afternoon. But Sweden hasn’t looked like the most formidable team in this tournament, and they’ll need to wade through an ascendant England to get there.
England, despite those early predictions, have all the momentum on their side this evening (and everything to lose here, too). The host nation has played with an evolved mentality from tournaments gone by. Guided by Sarina Wiegman, the Lionesses’ have exhibited a ruthless confidence and winning mentality that previously evaded them as they fell in the semi-finals in their past three major tournaments (World Cups ‘15, ‘19 and Euro ‘17).
Will it be enough to get them through to the final, at long last?
Sweden, so far
Should England prove victorious, Sweden will end their campaign exactly where they started it: at Bramall Lane in Sheffield. The northern city played host to two of Sweden’s group stage matches, beginning with a respectable draw against the Dutch. Sweden was on the attack early for that one (looking briefly like the heavily predicted team to beat) leading with a goal from Jonna Andersson. Dutch adjustments at the half shifted momentum enough to draw level (thanks to Jill Roord, and Dutch backup goalkeeper Daphne van Damselaar’s incredible save to stop Fridolina Rolfo in the waning minutes). The pair ended the night 1-1, and Sweden’s cascade of fans took to Division Street for some chanting and tabletop dancing while shouting the lyrics to ABBA.
Barcelona’s Fridolina Rolfo was the player with the difference for Sweden’s second visit to Bramall Lane. Rolfo is easily among the fastest players in this tournament and her ability to drive the ball forward from the left could be a key test for England tonight. Fortunately for England, Rolfo will find a more than capable Lucy Bronze waiting for her on the other side- her newly signed teammate at Barcelona, mind you- though, England could be left vulnerable there as Bronze likes to play high up the field.
… Rolfo’s goal against Switzerland was eclipsed almost immediately by Bachmann’s, but Sweden kept the three points thanks to an 80th minute goal from 68-minute substitute Hanna Bennison.
Sweden’s most resounding victory came against a youthful Portuguese side (whose string of gritty performances and comeback attempts won over a few hearts), who they defeated 5-0 to finish top of Group C.
… That resounding victory was followed immediately by a rather unforgiving quarterfinal. Sweden escaped past the least intimidating squad left in the knockouts by the skin of their stoppage time teeth. The 92nd minute goal from Juve’s Linda Sembrant secured their return to Sheffield, but leaves lingering questions, one being how Sweden can take so many shots and score so few goals. Against Belgium, for example, Sweden took 33 shots (compared to Belgium’s 3) clocking an xG of 3.86, though they only scored once.
Something to really emphasize here is that Sweden has been consistently underperforming their xG so far this tournament— make of that what you will. They take a lot of shots (Stina Blackstenius leads the tournament in attempts, but only has one goal). They don’t dominate possession- averaging a near even 50/50 split this tournament- but have eclipsed nearly every team they play in chance creation and shots on goal. The quality of those chances could be called into question, but England can expect a team willing to cede them possession while capitalizing on the counter and quick to send the ball toward net.
England, so far
Now, this is a team with swagger. In more ways than one, England has been reminding me of the 2019 US team… surely a good sign for their ability to do it all. From setting the tone with a group stage trouncing (Though England against much tougher competition), to overcoming downfall by way of Spain in the knockouts, this is a team that seems capable of winning by pure force of mentality and will.
Thing is, they’ve also got skill, a convincing tactician as manager, and the momentum of a home nation to spur them on. Sweden will be tough, but my money’s on England to pull through.
England’s home opener against Austria was an understated affair. They looked shaky in moments (the only nerves I’ve seen in them, mind you) and after scoring early, played cautious. But Austria’s brilliant defending deserves more credit than it initially got. England played smart, showing signs of the creative attack we’d see in subsequent matches.
In their second match- despite predictions of tough competition with Norway- they unceremoniously dispensed with Norway’s much-lauded attack, and had their backline reeling as they broke a tournament record tarnishing the Norwegians eight-nil.
Northern Ireland gave England an early challenge, holding the scoreline even for most of the first half. But England’s pressure broke through for two goals before the half, then continued the onslaught into the second before ending the game a resounding 5-0.
Down in Brighton for the knockouts, Spain looked like the better team. England was on the back foot for the first time this tournament, outplayed in the first half and down one early in the second after a goal from Esther Gonzalez. Here more than ever, mentality and management seemed to pull them through. England players in the aftermath confessed they never believed they would lose that night, and following astute adjustments from Wiegman, they scored twice– first in the 84th minute and then in extra time to go through to the semi-final.
Prediction
England is surpassed only by Spain in average possession per game this tournament. Sweden, on the other hand, tends to share parity or cede possession to the opposing team. Sweden does press high at times, but I expect England to have the ball and Sweden to sit back. England’s ability to break down Sweden while defending the counter will make the difference tonight.
After a shaky performance against Spain, I also expect Sweden will try to exploit Rachel Daly along the right flank as Spain did, and England’s ability to support her could make a different tonight, too.
I think the match ends 2-1 in favor of England. Rolfo goal from an Asllani assist for the Swedes. Mead and Russo (second half sub for White) for the hosts.